AKP Phnom Penh, October 03, 2025 --

World rice production is forecast to reach a record high of 556.4 million tonnes (milled basis) in the 2025-26 season, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) said Friday.

The upwardly revised forecast is 1.0 million tonnes higher than the FAO’s projection in September and implies an annual increase of 1.2 percent from the previous season.

Among major producers, the FAO provisionally lowered its production forecast for Pakistan by 0.6 million tonnes, owing to severe floods in Punjab, the country’s leading rice producing province.

“However, this downgrade is outweighed by 1.6 million tonne increase in production expectations for India, where a strong pace of Kharif crop plantings is reported, despite some challenges posed by deficient rains in some eastern and northeastern states and by floods in northwestern areas,” the UN agency said.

UTILIZATION FORECAST AT HISTORIC PEAK

World rice utilisation is meanwhile forecast at an historic peak of 550.8 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season — little changed from September expectations and up 2.0 percent from the 2024-25 season.

The forecast for world rice stocks at the close of the current season  “continues to suggest that world rice reserves could strike a record high, sustained by accumulations in rice exporting and importing countries,” the FAO said.

For the calendar year, world rice trade is projected at 60.1 million tonnes — down from a revised forecast of 61.2 million tonnes for 2024. 

“The 1.8 percent annual reduction is expected to be demand driven,” the agency said.

“Ample availabilities from good local harvests and large purchases in 2025, could drive a second annual cut in Asian imports, while also easing purchases by African countries somewhat,” it added.

ALL RICE PRICE INDEX FALLS 0.5 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER

The FAO announced separately Friday that its All Rice Price Index in September fell by 0.5 percent from August as reduced purchase orders by buyers in the Philippines and Africa weighed on the market.

It also said that word rice trade was expected to decline due to lower demand by Asian and African countries, reflecting good local harvests and large purchases made in 2025.

By Sao Da